The EU has warned Russia that it can face more potent
sanctions over the Ukraine crisis. Ruben Zaiotti writes at the function that
visas may want to play in EU sanctions. He notes that applications from Russia
make up the biggest share of all Schengen visas issued and that Russia has one
of the lowest visa refusal prices in Schengen states. He argues that taking a
harder line on visa packages from Russia could consequently provide an herbal
direction to exert pressure over Ukraine; however the sort of policy might also
convey a significant price for EU international locations.
It'd be a piece of an irony to mention that relations among
Russia and European governments have lately become as an alternative frosty. Indeed,
we now generally listen references to a brand new ‘bloodless conflict’, with
Ukraine performing as battleground in this revamped East-West contention. Notwithstanding
the militaristic undertones that characterize their dating, the developing
tensions between the 2 aspects have now not led to open warfare. Each, in the
end, could have plenty to lose from this war of words. This state of affairs,
but, does not mean that another type of battle, one now not related to tanks
and missiles, is being waged. Its miles a battle over mobility of people,
fought via an unlikely weapon of mass disruption, namely visas.
EU governments have in fact created a ‘black list’ of
Russian public officers who are deemed personae non grate and banned from
coming into the EU. European officials present this move as an preliminary
warning shot before harsher measures (i.e. Monetary sanctions) are introduced
as a method to put strain on their Russian counterparts. Whether or not those
threats of escalation will materialize is an issue of dialogue. It is no
mystery that Europeans are divided on what to do with Russia, and it's far not
going that they could irreparably antagonize their bilateral relations with
Moscow. There is a great hazard then that visas will continue to be Europe’s
sole offensive instrument deployed on this battle. Europe’s mighty arsenal may
additionally consequently in large part encompass not anything more than a bit
of paper.
Nevertheless, we have to be cautious now not to
underestimate the power of this ‘tender’ weapon. For the Russian elites (be
they tycoons or well-related public officials) get admission to Europe is a
touchy problem, given their enduring fascination and huge (and frequently
murky) monetary dealings with the old Continent. Europeans are properly aware
about this soft spot, and it is consequently no longer sudden that they may be
trying to take benefit of it as much they are able to.
There's some other element of this conflict that regularly
is going omitted, however. The visa problem isn't always a depend of concern
handiest for Russian elites. The maximum latest records posted by using
Frontex, the EU border company, are revealing on this regard. As shown in Chart
1 below, by way of far the biggest percentage of quick-time period uniform
visas issued for Schengen international locations are for people who are based
in Russia, at forty one.7 per cent of the entire in 2012. The u . S . A . With the
following biggest percent of visas issued is Ukraine, at best 9 consistent with
cent of the total.
SOURCE: EU COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-STANDARD HOME AFFAIRS
In turn, as Chart 2 indicates, the rejection fee for Russian
applicants is most of the smallest of the pinnacle 20 nations where visas are
issued. Of those applications for a Schengen visa made in Russia in 2012,
simplest 0.nine according to cent had been refused. For comparison, the United
States with the biggest refusal rate, Algeria, had 26.7 in keeping with cent of
applications being refused.
SOURCE: EUROPEAN FEE DIRECTORATE-WIDESPREAD DOMESTIC AFFAIRS
This being the case, a cynic may argue that an attractive
opportunity road to intensify the strain on the Kremlin should properly be
making it harder for regular Russians to obtain the sought-after bypass to
Europe. And but banning a wealthy supply of income for a continent nevertheless
getting better from a devastating disaster does no longer appear be such a
smart move. The potential for this kind of move to backfire is surely high.
This path should not be completely brushed off, but. European
officials should use the visa issue as a bargaining chip of their dealings with
Russia. Certainly, something alongside these lines is already taking place. One
instance of that is that the European has refused to allow residents of Crimea
to apply for visas via Russian establishments and instead will handiest provide
visas to these citizens if they practice in Ukraine – no matter the annexation
of the peninsula with the aid of Russia. The fee has justified this by means of
pointing out that it will difficulty visas through Ukraine due to the fact
“Crimea is a part of this U . S .”.
EU officials may also include within the mix a probable
revival of the longstanding discussion over the lifting of visa requirements
for Russian nationals, which even before the today's occasions in Ukraine had
hit some road blocks. The European suspended negotiations over a visa-loose
arrangement with Russia in March, after the Crimean disaster began. All matters
taken into consideration, the story of the European-Russian visa battle may
also simply be getting beneath way
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